Albania U19 3–1 North Macedonia U19: Result & Stats

Albania U19

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

North Macedonia U19

S. Bibo 50'

P. Pjeshka 48'

A. Mata 19' (pen)

M. Talakov 45+1'

11/16/2021

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 8Elbasan Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Albania U1957%

×Draw21%

North Macedonia U1922%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Albania U19Expected goals in this matchNorth Macedonia U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.18

Albania U19

2.04

North Macedonia U19

1.18

Albania U19 creates 73% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 14 away

1.86

creates per match

0.93

1.43

allows per match

2.21

creates per match

Albania U19

1.86

North Macedonia U19

0.93

allows per match

Albania U19

1.43

North Macedonia U19

2.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Albania U19+0.00on par

North Macedonia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albania U19 ↓

North Macedonia U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Albania U19 or draw

78%

Albania U19 or North Macedonia U19

79%

Draw or North Macedonia U19

43%

Winning margin

Albania U19 wins by 2+

34%

North Macedonia U19 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Albania U19 1+ goals

87%

Albania U19 2+ goals

60%

Albania U19 3+ goals

33%

North Macedonia U19 1+ goals

69%

North Macedonia U19 2+ goals

33%

North Macedonia U19 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Albania U19 (draw refunded)

72%

North Macedonia U19 (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albania U19 at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

North Macedonia U19 away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.21 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albania U19 attack 1.86 + North Macedonia U19 defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.04

North Macedonia U19 attack 0.93 + Albania U19 defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Albania U19 scores more

57%

level

21%

North Macedonia U19 scores more

22%

Albania U19 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Albania U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

A. MataPenalty

45+1'

48'

50'

51'

51'

V. Krstevski← O. Rakipi

56'

D. Jahiji← M. Angelov

56'

L. Kudev← A. Jankulovski

72'

Z. Arapi← S. Bibo

81'

D. Bosheski← S. Redjepi

82'

K. Bebeziqi← A. Mata

82'

S. Shpendi← P. Pjeshka

90+1'

C. Shpendi← E. Toçi

90+2'

M. Çipi← R. Alivoda

Albania

North

1

▼

Tasev

17

▼

Jankulovs

4

▼

Redjepi

16

Hristovsk

10

▼

Rakipi

19

⚽

Talakov

20

Gudjufi

15

▼

5

7

9

1

4

5

2

7

⚽

▼

Pjeshka

18

Hysaj

3

Bytyqi

10

⚽

▼

Mata

15

▼

Alivoda

16

⚽

▼

Bibo

9

▼

Toçi

Manager: A. Cungu

72'▲Z. Arapi←▼S. Bibo

82'▲K. Bebeziqi←▼A. Mata

82'▲S. Shpendi←▼P. Pjeshka

90+1'▲C. Shpendi←▼E. Toçi

90+2'▲M. Çipi←▼R. Alivoda

Albania U19 substitutes

17Arapi14Bebeziqi19Shpendi11Shpendi20Çipi12Simoni

Manager: D. Beari

51'▲G. Jovčev←▼S. Tasev

51'▲V. Krstevski←▼O. Rakipi

56'▲D. Jahiji←▼M. Angelov

56'▲L. Kudev←▼A. Jankulovski

81'▲D. Bosheski←▼S. Redjepi

North Macedonia U19 substitutes

12Jovčev18Krstevski8Jahiji2Kudev13Bosheski14Ali11Saitoski3Davkov6Šaini

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Albania U19 3–1 North Macedonia U19

Albania U19 beat North Macedonia U19 3-1 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on November 16, 2021.

Goals: A. Mata (19' pen), M. Talakov (45+1'), P. Pjeshka (48'), S. Bibo (50').

The match was played at Elbasan Arena in Elbasan.

Albania U19 vs North Macedonia U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Albania U19 3–1 North Macedonia U19