Albania U19 0–1 Montenegro U19: Result & Stats

Albania U19

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Montenegro U19

M. Jovanovic 78'

11/18/2025

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Albania U1948%

×Draw24%

Montenegro U1928%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Albania U19Expected goals in this matchMontenegro U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.21

Albania U19

1.67

Montenegro U19

1.21

Albania U19 creates 38% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 15 away

1.86

creates per match

1.00

1.43

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Albania U19

1.86

Montenegro U19

1.00

allows per match

Albania U19

1.43

Montenegro U19

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Albania U19+0.00on par

Montenegro U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albania U19 ↓

Montenegro U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Albania U19 or draw

72%

Albania U19 or Montenegro U19

76%

Draw or Montenegro U19

52%

Winning margin

Albania U19 wins by 2+

25%

Montenegro U19 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Albania U19 1+ goals

81%

Albania U19 2+ goals

50%

Albania U19 3+ goals

23%

Montenegro U19 1+ goals

70%

Montenegro U19 2+ goals

34%

Montenegro U19 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Albania U19 (draw refunded)

63%

Montenegro U19 (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albania U19 at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

Montenegro U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albania U19 attack 1.86 + Montenegro U19 defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.67

Montenegro U19 attack 1.00 + Albania U19 defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Albania U19 scores more

48%

level

24%

Montenegro U19 scores more

28%

Albania U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Albania U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

10'

46'

65'

71'

Y. El Malem← K. Gecaj

71'

M. Dashi← D. Durmisi

71'

T. Malaj← B. Gjyla

72'

L. Brajovic← N. Balevic

78'

M. Jovanovic

81'

L. Cekrezi← L. Sylejmani

83'

J. Roganovic← O. Krajina

83'

L. Raicevic← A. Bozovic

89'

D. Minic

90+4'

D. Saranovic← P. Jaukovic

Albania

Montenegro

12

Minic

2

Mugosa

6

▼

Popovic

5

Martinovi

21

Racic

15

▼

Bozovic

8

▼

Balevic

17

⚽

Jovanovic

7

Vlahovic

19

▼

Krajina

11

▼

1

2

5

14

▼

Sylejmani

4

▼

19

13

10

9

▼

Durmisi

7

Kulla

20

▼

Gjyla

Manager: J. Ahmati

71'▲Y. El Malem←▼K. Gecaj

71'▲M. Dashi←▼D. Durmisi

71'▲T. Malaj←▼B. Gjyla

81'▲L. Cekrezi←▼L. Sylejmani

Albania U19 substitutes

12Huli3Malem8Arifi11Dashi15Cekrezi16Ndoj17Malaj18Duka

Manager: Nenad Vukcevic

46'▲V. Jokic←▼L. Popovic

72'▲L. Brajovic←▼N. Balevic

83'▲J. Roganovic←▼O. Krajina

83'▲L. Raicevic←▼A. Bozovic

90+4'▲D. Saranovic←▼P. Jaukovic

Montenegro U19 substitutes

1Djurovic3Kojic4Jokic9Roganovic16Brajovic18Saranovic20Raicevic

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Albania U19 0–1 Montenegro U19

Montenegro U19 beat Albania U19 1-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on November 18, 2025.

Goals: M. Jovanovic (78').

Albania U19 vs Montenegro U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Albania U19 0–1 Montenegro U19