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Albalonga vs San Marzano — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Albalonga
Albalonga
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
San Marzano
San Marzano
9/17/2023Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 2Stadio Comunale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Albalonga53%
×Draw26%
San Marzano21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Albalonga
1.51
San Marzano
0.83

Albalonga creates 82% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

creates per match

Albalonga
1.73
San Marzano
0.71

allows per match

Albalonga
0.96
San Marzano
1.29

finishing

Albalonga+0.00on par
San Marzano+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albalonga ↓

San Marzano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Albalonga or draw
79%
Albalonga or San Marzano
74%
Draw or San Marzano
47%

Winning margin

Albalonga wins by 2+
27%
San Marzano wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Albalonga 1+ goals
78%
Albalonga 2+ goals
44%
Albalonga 3+ goals
19%
San Marzano 1+ goals
56%
San Marzano 2+ goals
20%
San Marzano 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Albalonga (draw refunded)
72%
San Marzano (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albalonga at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.96 · 51 matches

San Marzano away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albalonga attack 1.73 + San Marzano defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.51

San Marzano attack 0.71 + Albalonga defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Albalonga scores more
53%
level
26%
San Marzano scores more
21%

Albalonga at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Albalonga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Albalonga 2–0 San Marzano

Albalonga beat San Marzano 2-0 in Serie D - Girone G on September 17, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale in Genzano di Roma.