Albalonga 1–0 Ilvamaddalena: Result & Stats

Albalonga

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ilvamaddalena

10/6/2024

Serie D - Girone G · Group G - 5Stadio Comunale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Albalonga50%

×Draw26%

Ilvamaddalena24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlbalongaExpected goals in this matchIlvamaddalena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.99

Albalonga

1.54

Ilvamaddalena

0.99

Albalonga creates 56% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 34 away

1.73

creates per match

1.03

0.96

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Albalonga

1.73

Ilvamaddalena

1.03

allows per match

Albalonga

0.96

Ilvamaddalena

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Albalonga+0.00on par

Ilvamaddalena+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albalonga ↓

Ilvamaddalena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Albalonga or draw

76%

Albalonga or Ilvamaddalena

74%

Draw or Ilvamaddalena

50%

Winning margin

Albalonga wins by 2+

26%

Ilvamaddalena wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Albalonga 1+ goals

79%

Albalonga 2+ goals

45%

Albalonga 3+ goals

20%

Ilvamaddalena 1+ goals

63%

Ilvamaddalena 2+ goals

26%

Ilvamaddalena 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Albalonga (draw refunded)

67%

Ilvamaddalena (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albalonga at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.96 · 51 matches

Ilvamaddalena away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.35 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albalonga attack 1.73 + Ilvamaddalena defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.54

Ilvamaddalena attack 1.03 + Albalonga defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Albalonga scores more

50%

level

26%

Ilvamaddalena scores more

24%

Albalonga at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Albalonga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff