Albalonga 0–1 Cavese: Result & Stats

Albalonga

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Cavese

12/10/2023

Serie D - Girone G · Group G - 15Stadio Comunale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Albalonga34%

×Draw27%

Cavese39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlbalongaExpected goals in this matchCavese

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.30

Albalonga

1.19

Cavese

1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

1.73

creates per match

1.65

0.96

allows per match

0.65

creates per match

Albalonga

1.73

Cavese

1.65

allows per match

Albalonga

0.96

Cavese

0.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Albalonga+0.00on par

Cavese+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albalonga ↓

Cavese →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Albalonga or draw

61%

Albalonga or Cavese

73%

Draw or Cavese

66%

Winning margin

Albalonga wins by 2+

14%

Cavese wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Albalonga 1+ goals

70%

Albalonga 2+ goals

33%

Albalonga 3+ goals

12%

Cavese 1+ goals

73%

Cavese 2+ goals

37%

Cavese 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Albalonga (draw refunded)

46%

Cavese (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albalonga at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.96 · 51 matches

Cavese away — creates 1.65, concedes 0.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albalonga attack 1.73 + Cavese defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 1.19

Cavese attack 1.65 + Albalonga defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Albalonga scores more

34%

level

27%

Cavese scores more

39%

Cavese at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Cavese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff