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Albalonga vs Carbonia — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Albalonga
Albalonga
FT
1 – 2
Carbonia
Carbonia
11/7/2021Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 8Stadio Comunale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Albalonga59%
×Draw22%
Carbonia20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Albalonga
1.96
Carbonia
1.04

Albalonga creates 88% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

creates per match

Albalonga
1.73
Carbonia
1.12

allows per match

Albalonga
0.96
Carbonia
2.18

finishing

Albalonga+0.00on par
Carbonia+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albalonga ↓

Carbonia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Albalonga or draw
80%
Albalonga or Carbonia
78%
Draw or Carbonia
41%

Winning margin

Albalonga wins by 2+
35%
Carbonia wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Albalonga 1+ goals
86%
Albalonga 2+ goals
58%
Albalonga 3+ goals
31%
Carbonia 1+ goals
65%
Carbonia 2+ goals
28%
Carbonia 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Albalonga (draw refunded)
75%
Carbonia (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albalonga at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.96 · 51 matches

Carbonia away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albalonga attack 1.73 + Carbonia defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.96

Carbonia attack 1.12 + Albalonga defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Albalonga scores more
59%
level
22%
Carbonia scores more
20%

Albalonga at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Albalonga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Albalonga vs Carbonia

Carbonia beat Albalonga 2-1 in Serie D - Girone G on November 7, 2021.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale in Genzano di Roma.