Albalonga 2–0 Atletico Uri: Result & Stats

Albalonga

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Atletico Uri

3/17/2024

Serie D - Girone G · Group G - 27Stadio Comunale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Albalonga56%

×Draw24%

Atletico Uri20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlbalongaExpected goals in this matchAtletico Uri

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

0.92

Albalonga

1.72

Atletico Uri

0.92

Albalonga creates 87% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 68 away

1.73

creates per match

0.87

0.96

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Albalonga

1.73

Atletico Uri

0.87

allows per match

Albalonga

0.96

Atletico Uri

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Albalonga+0.00on par

Atletico Uri+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albalonga ↓

Atletico Uri →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Albalonga or draw

80%

Albalonga or Atletico Uri

76%

Draw or Atletico Uri

44%

Winning margin

Albalonga wins by 2+

31%

Atletico Uri wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Albalonga 1+ goals

82%

Albalonga 2+ goals

51%

Albalonga 3+ goals

25%

Atletico Uri 1+ goals

60%

Atletico Uri 2+ goals

23%

Atletico Uri 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Albalonga (draw refunded)

74%

Atletico Uri (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albalonga at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.96 · 51 matches

Atletico Uri away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.71 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albalonga attack 1.73 + Atletico Uri defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.72

Atletico Uri attack 0.87 + Albalonga defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Albalonga scores more

56%

level

24%

Atletico Uri scores more

20%

Albalonga at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Albalonga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff