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Albacete vs Sporting Gijon — Segunda División 2018

Albacete
Albacete
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Sporting Gijon
Sporting Gijon
10/27/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 12Estadio Carlos Belmonte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 148+ matches

Albacete41%
×Draw29%
Sporting Gijon31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Albacete
1.20
Sporting Gijon
1.00

Albacete creates 20% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 169 away

creates per match

Albacete
1.26
Sporting Gijon
0.90

allows per match

Albacete
1.09
Sporting Gijon
1.14

finishing

Albacete+0.00on par
Sporting Gijon+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albacete ↓

Sporting Gijon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Albacete or draw
69%
Albacete or Sporting Gijon
71%
Draw or Sporting Gijon
59%

Winning margin

Albacete wins by 2+
17%
Sporting Gijon wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Albacete 1+ goals
70%
Albacete 2+ goals
34%
Albacete 3+ goals
12%
Sporting Gijon 1+ goals
63%
Sporting Gijon 2+ goals
26%
Sporting Gijon 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Albacete (draw refunded)
57%
Sporting Gijon (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albacete at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.09 · 148 matches

Sporting Gijon away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.14 · 169 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albacete attack 1.26 + Sporting Gijon defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.20

Sporting Gijon attack 0.90 + Albacete defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Albacete scores more
41%
level
29%
Sporting Gijon scores more
31%

Albacete at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Albacete will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Albacete vs Sporting Gijon

Albacete and Sporting Gijon drew 3-3 in Segunda División on October 27, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Carlos Belmonte in Albacete.