Albacete 4–0 Sanluqueño: Result & Stats

Albacete

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Sanluqueño

Kike Márquez 53'

Fran Álvarez 48'

Manu Fuster 4', 2'

4/10/2022

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 31Estadio Carlos Belmonte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Albacete60%

×Draw25%

Sanluqueño16%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlbaceteExpected goals in this matchSanluqueño

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

0.67

Albacete

1.59

Sanluqueño

0.67

Albacete creates 137% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 76 away

1.74

creates per match

0.80

0.53

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Albacete

1.74

Sanluqueño

0.80

allows per match

Albacete

0.53

Sanluqueño

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Albacete+0.00on par

Sanluqueño+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albacete ↓

Sanluqueño →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–17%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Albacete or draw

84%

Albacete or Sanluqueño

75%

Draw or Sanluqueño

40%

Winning margin

Albacete wins by 2+

32%

Sanluqueño wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Albacete 1+ goals

80%

Albacete 2+ goals

47%

Albacete 3+ goals

21%

Sanluqueño 1+ goals

49%

Sanluqueño 2+ goals

15%

Sanluqueño 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Albacete (draw refunded)

79%

Sanluqueño (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albacete at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.53 · 19 matches

Sanluqueño away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.45 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albacete attack 1.74 + Sanluqueño defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.59

Sanluqueño attack 0.80 + Albacete defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Albacete scores more

60%

level

25%

Sanluqueño scores more

16%

Albacete at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Albacete will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

4'

5'

15'

18'

31'

E. Attipoe← F. Boyomo

46'

Edu Oriol← Javi Barrio

46'

Javi Navarro← H. Adamou

48'

Fran Álvarez

53'

Kike Márquez

55'

Miguelete Ramírez← Dani Güiza

60'

Èric Montes← Manu Fuster

60'

Sergi García← Alberto Jiménez

70'

J. Martínez← Kike Márquez

70'

Rafa Gálvez← M. Djetei

80'

Chicho← Adrián Armental

83'

David Vidal← Toni García

Albacete

Sanluqueño

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽2

▼

Fuster

Rodríguez

⚽

▼

Márquez

Manager: Rubén De La Barrera

31'▲E. Attipoe←▼F. Boyomo

60'▲Èric Montes←▼Manu Fuster

60'▲Sergi García←▼Alberto Jiménez

70'▲J. Martínez←▼Kike Márquez

70'▲Rafa Gálvez←▼M. Djetei

Albacete substitutes

AttipoeMontesGarcíaMartínezGálvezKawayaRosićGómezSánchezLlinaresMedina

Manager: Manolo Sanlúcar

46'▲Edu Oriol←▼Javi Barrio

46'▲Javi Navarro←▼H. Adamou

55'▲Miguelete Ramírez←▼Dani Güiza

80'▲Chicho←▼Adrián Armental

83'▲David Vidal←▼Toni García

Sanluqueño substitutes

OriolNavarroRamírezChichoVidalCanillasMartínezJuanpaMartín