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Albacete vs Reus — Segunda División 2018

Albacete
Albacete
FT
1 – 0
Reus
Reus
1/27/2019Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 23Carlos Belmonte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Albacete47%
×Draw30%
Reus23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Albacete
1.19
Reus
0.74

Albacete creates 61% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 21 away

creates per match

Albacete
1.27
Reus
0.38

allows per match

Albacete
1.09
Reus
1.10

finishing

Albacete+0.00on par
Reus+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albacete ↓

Reus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Albacete or draw
77%
Albacete or Reus
70%
Draw or Reus
53%

Winning margin

Albacete wins by 2+
21%
Reus wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Albacete 1+ goals
70%
Albacete 2+ goals
33%
Albacete 3+ goals
12%
Reus 1+ goals
52%
Reus 2+ goals
17%
Reus 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Albacete (draw refunded)
67%
Reus (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albacete at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.09 · 149 matches

Reus away — creates 0.38, concedes 1.10 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albacete attack 1.27 + Reus defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.19

Reus attack 0.38 + Albacete defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Albacete scores more
47%
level
30%
Reus scores more
23%

Albacete at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Albacete will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Albacete vs Reus

Albacete beat Reus 1-0 in Segunda División on January 27, 2019.

The match was played at Carlos Belmonte in Albacete.