Albacete 2–0 Racing Santander: Result & Stats

Albacete

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Racing Santander

2/18/2024

Segunda División · Round 27Estadio Carlos Belmonte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Albacete42%

×Draw27%

Racing Santander31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlbaceteExpected goals in this matchRacing Santander

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.13

Albacete

1.35

Racing Santander

1.13

Albacete creates 19% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 106 away

1.27

creates per match

1.16

1.09

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Albacete

1.27

Racing Santander

1.16

allows per match

Albacete

1.09

Racing Santander

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Albacete+0.00on par

Racing Santander+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albacete ↓

Racing Santander →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Albacete or draw

69%

Albacete or Racing Santander

73%

Draw or Racing Santander

58%

Winning margin

Albacete wins by 2+

19%

Racing Santander wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Albacete 1+ goals

74%

Albacete 2+ goals

39%

Albacete 3+ goals

15%

Racing Santander 1+ goals

68%

Racing Santander 2+ goals

31%

Racing Santander 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Albacete (draw refunded)

57%

Racing Santander (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albacete at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.09 · 149 matches

Racing Santander away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.43 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albacete attack 1.27 + Racing Santander defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.35

Racing Santander attack 1.16 + Albacete defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Albacete scores more

42%

level

27%

Racing Santander scores more

31%

Albacete at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Albacete will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff