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Albacete vs Racing Ferrol — Segunda División 2018

Albacete
Albacete
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Racing Ferrol
Racing Ferrol
3/25/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 32Estadio Carlos Belmonte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Albacete49%
×Draw27%
Racing Ferrol23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Albacete
1.41
Racing Ferrol
0.88

Albacete creates 60% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 42 away

creates per match

Albacete
1.26
Racing Ferrol
0.67

allows per match

Albacete
1.09
Racing Ferrol
1.55

finishing

Albacete+0.00on par
Racing Ferrol+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albacete ↓

Racing Ferrol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Albacete or draw
77%
Albacete or Racing Ferrol
73%
Draw or Racing Ferrol
51%

Winning margin

Albacete wins by 2+
24%
Racing Ferrol wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Albacete 1+ goals
76%
Albacete 2+ goals
41%
Albacete 3+ goals
17%
Racing Ferrol 1+ goals
59%
Racing Ferrol 2+ goals
22%
Racing Ferrol 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Albacete (draw refunded)
68%
Racing Ferrol (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albacete at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.09 · 148 matches

Racing Ferrol away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.55 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albacete attack 1.26 + Racing Ferrol defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.41

Racing Ferrol attack 0.67 + Albacete defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Albacete scores more
49%
level
27%
Racing Ferrol scores more
23%

Albacete at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Albacete will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Albacete vs Racing Ferrol

Albacete and Racing Ferrol drew 1-1 in Segunda División on March 25, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Carlos Belmonte in Albacete.