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Albacete vs Llagostera — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Albacete
Albacete
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Llagostera
Llagostera
5/28/2022Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 38Estadio Carlos Belmonte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Albacete65%
×Draw24%
Llagostera12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Albacete
1.66
Llagostera
0.55

Albacete creates 202% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Albacete
1.74
Llagostera
0.58

allows per match

Albacete
0.53
Llagostera
1.58

finishing

Albacete+0.00on par
Llagostera+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albacete ↓

Llagostera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Albacete or draw
88%
Albacete or Llagostera
76%
Draw or Llagostera
35%

Winning margin

Albacete wins by 2+
37%
Llagostera wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Albacete 1+ goals
81%
Albacete 2+ goals
49%
Albacete 3+ goals
23%
Llagostera 1+ goals
42%
Llagostera 2+ goals
11%
Llagostera 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Albacete (draw refunded)
84%
Llagostera (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albacete at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.53 · 19 matches

Llagostera away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.58 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albacete attack 1.74 + Llagostera defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.66

Llagostera attack 0.58 + Albacete defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Albacete scores more
65%
level
24%
Llagostera scores more
12%

Albacete at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Albacete will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Albacete vs Llagostera

Llagostera beat Albacete 3-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on May 28, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Carlos Belmonte in Albacete.