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Albacete vs Linares Deportivo — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Albacete
Albacete
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Linares Deportivo
Linares Deportivo
11/6/2021Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 11Estadio Carlos Belmonte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Albacete58%
×Draw23%
Linares Deportivo19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Albacete
1.78
Linares Deportivo
0.89

Albacete creates 100% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 38 away

creates per match

Albacete
1.74
Linares Deportivo
1.24

allows per match

Albacete
0.53
Linares Deportivo
1.82

finishing

Albacete+0.00on par
Linares Deportivo+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albacete ↓

Linares Deportivo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Albacete or draw
81%
Albacete or Linares Deportivo
77%
Draw or Linares Deportivo
42%

Winning margin

Albacete wins by 2+
33%
Linares Deportivo wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Albacete 1+ goals
83%
Albacete 2+ goals
53%
Albacete 3+ goals
26%
Linares Deportivo 1+ goals
59%
Linares Deportivo 2+ goals
22%
Linares Deportivo 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Albacete (draw refunded)
76%
Linares Deportivo (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albacete at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.53 · 19 matches

Linares Deportivo away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.82 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albacete attack 1.74 + Linares Deportivo defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.78

Linares Deportivo attack 1.24 + Albacete defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Albacete scores more
58%
level
23%
Linares Deportivo scores more
19%

Albacete at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Albacete will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Albacete vs Linares Deportivo

Albacete beat Linares Deportivo 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on November 6, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Carlos Belmonte in Albacete.