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Albacete vs Eibar — Segunda División 2018

Albacete
Albacete
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Eibar
Eibar
4/24/2026Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 37Estadio Carlos Belmonte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Albacete40%
×Draw28%
Eibar31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Albacete
1.23
Eibar
1.04

Albacete creates 18% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 108 away

creates per match

Albacete
1.27
Eibar
0.99

allows per match

Albacete
1.09
Eibar
1.18

finishing

Albacete+0.00on par
Eibar+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albacete ↓

Eibar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Albacete or draw
69%
Albacete or Eibar
72%
Draw or Eibar
60%

Winning margin

Albacete wins by 2+
18%
Eibar wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Albacete 1+ goals
71%
Albacete 2+ goals
35%
Albacete 3+ goals
13%
Eibar 1+ goals
65%
Eibar 2+ goals
28%
Eibar 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Albacete (draw refunded)
57%
Eibar (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albacete at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.09 · 149 matches

Eibar away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.18 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albacete attack 1.27 + Eibar defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.23

Eibar attack 0.99 + Albacete defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Albacete scores more
40%
level
28%
Eibar scores more
31%

Albacete at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Albacete will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Albacete 0–3 Eibar

Eibar beat Albacete 3-0 in Segunda División on April 24, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Carlos Belmonte in Albacete.