Albacete 1–0 Atlético Baleares: Result & Stats

Albacete

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Atlético Baleares

Dani González 9'

3/13/2022

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 27Estadio Carlos Belmonte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Albacete59%

×Draw25%

Atlético Baleares16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlbaceteExpected goals in this matchAtlético Baleares

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.68

Albacete

1.58

Atlético Baleares

0.68

Albacete creates 132% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 57 away

1.74

creates per match

0.82

0.53

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Albacete

1.74

Atlético Baleares

0.82

allows per match

Albacete

0.53

Atlético Baleares

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Albacete+0.00on par

Atlético Baleares+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albacete ↓

Atlético Baleares →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–17%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Albacete or draw

84%

Albacete or Atlético Baleares

75%

Draw or Atlético Baleares

41%

Winning margin

Albacete wins by 2+

32%

Atlético Baleares wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Albacete 1+ goals

79%

Albacete 2+ goals

47%

Albacete 3+ goals

21%

Atlético Baleares 1+ goals

49%

Atlético Baleares 2+ goals

15%

Atlético Baleares 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Albacete (draw refunded)

79%

Atlético Baleares (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albacete at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.53 · 19 matches

Atlético Baleares away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.42 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albacete attack 1.74 + Atlético Baleares defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.58

Atlético Baleares attack 0.82 + Albacete defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Albacete scores more

59%

level

25%

Atlético Baleares scores more

16%

Albacete at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Albacete will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

Dani González

55'

L. Ferrone

59'

Rubén Martínez← Jordi Sánchez

59'

Dioni← Vinícius Tanque

59'

Jesús Álvaro← Ignasi Vilarrasa

73'

Cassio← Alfonso Martín

79'

A. Jimenez

80'

C. Silva

83'

Kike Márquez← Dani González

87'

Orfila← L. Ferrone

87'

Tòfol Montiel← Hugo Rodríguez

89'

Èric Montes← Riki Rodríguez

89'

Javi Jiménez← Sergi García

90+5'

Albacete

Atlético

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

González

Manager: Rubén De La Barrera

59'▲Rubén Martínez←▼Jordi Sánchez

83'▲Kike Márquez←▼Dani González

89'▲Èric Montes←▼Riki Rodríguez

89'▲Javi Jiménez←▼Sergi García

Albacete substitutes

MartínezMárquezMontesJiménezKawayaRosićMartínezLlinaresGálvezMedina

Manager: Eloy Jiménez

59'▲Dioni←▼Vinícius Tanque

59'▲Jesús Álvaro←▼Ignasi Vilarrasa

73'▲Cassio←▼Alfonso Martín

87'▲Orfila←▼L. Ferrone

87'▲Tòfol Montiel←▼Hugo Rodríguez

Atlético Baleares substitutes

DioniÁlvaroCassioOrfilaMontielAbadFranJaumeGinardZabarte

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Albacete 1–0 Atlético Baleares

Albacete beat Atlético Baleares 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on March 13, 2022.

Goals: Dani González (9').

The match was played at Estadio Carlos Belmonte in Albacete.

Albacete vs Atlético Baleares — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Albacete 1–0 Atlético Baleares