Albacete 3–1 Algeciras: Result & Stats

Albacete

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Algeciras

Manu Fuster 68'

Jordi Sánchez 20', 3'

Ávaro Leiva 24'

12/19/2021

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 17Estadio Carlos Belmonte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Albacete56%

×Draw25%

Algeciras19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlbaceteExpected goals in this matchAlgeciras

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

0.79

Albacete

1.57

Algeciras

0.79

Albacete creates 99% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 76 away

1.74

creates per match

1.05

0.53

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Albacete

1.74

Algeciras

1.05

allows per match

Albacete

0.53

Algeciras

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Albacete+0.00on par

Algeciras+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albacete ↓

Algeciras →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Albacete or draw

81%

Albacete or Algeciras

75%

Draw or Algeciras

44%

Winning margin

Albacete wins by 2+

30%

Algeciras wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Albacete 1+ goals

79%

Albacete 2+ goals

46%

Albacete 3+ goals

21%

Algeciras 1+ goals

55%

Algeciras 2+ goals

19%

Algeciras 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Albacete (draw refunded)

75%

Algeciras (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albacete at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.53 · 19 matches

Algeciras away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.41 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albacete attack 1.74 + Algeciras defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.57

Algeciras attack 1.05 + Albacete defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Albacete scores more

56%

level

25%

Algeciras scores more

19%

Albacete at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Albacete will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

Jordi Sánchez

14'

M. Gomez

20'

Jordi Sánchez

24'

Ávaro Leiva

56'

Andreu Arasa← Nando García

56'

David Del Pozo← Pau Resta

59'

Ferni

65'

P. Mena

68'

Manu Fuster

76'

Borja Fernández← Ávaro Leiva

76'

Javi Duarte← Pepe Mena

86'

Marc Llinares← Julio Alonso

86'

Miguel Campaña← Iván Turrillo

90+1'

E. Gómez← Rubén Martínez

90+1'

Rubén Cantero← M. Djetei

Albacete

Algeciras

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽2

Manager: Rubén De La Barrera

56'▲Andreu Arasa←▼Nando García

56'▲David Del Pozo←▼Pau Resta

86'▲Marc Llinares←▼Julio Alonso

90+1'▲E. Gómez←▼Rubén Martínez

90+1'▲Rubén Cantero←▼M. Djetei

Albacete substitutes

ArasaPozoLlinaresGómezCanteroRosićMartínezRoldán

Manager: Iván Ania

76'▲Borja Fernández←▼Ávaro Leiva

76'▲Javi Duarte←▼Pepe Mena

86'▲Miguel Campaña←▼Iván Turrillo

Algeciras substitutes

FernándezDuarteCampañaVillapalosAlcázarFiguerasPerisRijnTristán

Match Recap: Albacete vs Algeciras

Albacete beat Algeciras 3-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on December 19, 2021.

Goals: Jordi Sánchez (3', 20'), Ávaro Leiva (24'), Manu Fuster (68').

The match was played at Estadio Carlos Belmonte in Albacete.

Albacete vs Algeciras — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Albacete vs Algeciras