Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Albacete II vs Sonseca — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Albacete II
Albacete II
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sonseca
Sonseca
D. Rodriguez 85'
A. Vazquez Gomez 74'
R. Sanchez 68'
A. Morientes Palencia 34'
11/23/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 12Ciudad Deportiva Andrés Iniesta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Albacete II64%
×Draw21%
Sonseca15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Albacete II
2.02
Sonseca
0.85

Albacete II creates 138% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 17 away

creates per match

Albacete II
1.62
Sonseca
0.76

allows per match

Albacete II
0.95
Sonseca
2.41

finishing

Albacete II+0.00on par
Sonseca+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albacete II ↓

Sonseca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Albacete II or draw
85%
Albacete II or Sonseca
79%
Draw or Sonseca
36%

Winning margin

Albacete II wins by 2+
40%
Sonseca wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Albacete II 1+ goals
87%
Albacete II 2+ goals
60%
Albacete II 3+ goals
33%
Sonseca 1+ goals
57%
Sonseca 2+ goals
21%
Sonseca 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Albacete II (draw refunded)
81%
Sonseca (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albacete II at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.95 · 97 matches

Sonseca away — creates 0.76, concedes 2.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albacete II attack 1.62 + Sonseca defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 2.02

Sonseca attack 0.76 + Albacete II defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Albacete II scores more
64%
level
21%
Sonseca scores more
15%

Albacete II at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Albacete II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'
A. Morientes Palencia
68'
R. Sanchez
74'
A. Vazquez Gomez
85'
D. Rodriguez

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Albacete II vs Sonseca

Albacete II beat Sonseca 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on November 23, 2025.

Goals: A. Morientes Palencia (34'), R. Sanchez (68'), A. Vazquez Gomez (74'), D. Rodriguez (85').

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Andrés Iniesta in Albacete.