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Albacete II vs Miguelturreño — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Albacete II
Albacete II
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Miguelturreño
Miguelturreño
9/12/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 2Ciudad Deportiva 2 Albacete Andres Iniesta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Albacete II59%
×Draw23%
Miguelturreño18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Albacete II
1.75
Miguelturreño
0.85

Albacete II creates 106% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 16 away

creates per match

Albacete II
1.62
Miguelturreño
0.75

allows per match

Albacete II
0.95
Miguelturreño
1.88

finishing

Albacete II+0.00on par
Miguelturreño+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albacete II ↓

Miguelturreño →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Albacete II or draw
82%
Albacete II or Miguelturreño
77%
Draw or Miguelturreño
41%

Winning margin

Albacete II wins by 2+
33%
Miguelturreño wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Albacete II 1+ goals
83%
Albacete II 2+ goals
52%
Albacete II 3+ goals
25%
Miguelturreño 1+ goals
57%
Miguelturreño 2+ goals
21%
Miguelturreño 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Albacete II (draw refunded)
77%
Miguelturreño (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albacete II at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.95 · 97 matches

Miguelturreño away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albacete II attack 1.62 + Miguelturreño defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.75

Miguelturreño attack 0.75 + Albacete II defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Albacete II scores more
59%
level
23%
Miguelturreño scores more
18%

Albacete II at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Albacete II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18: Albacete II 3–2 Miguelturreño

Albacete II beat Miguelturreño 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on September 12, 2021.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva 2 Albacete Andres Iniesta in Albacete.