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Albacete II vs Madridejos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Albacete II
Albacete II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Madridejos
Madridejos
12/1/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 16Ciudad Deportiva Andrés Iniesta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Albacete II58%
×Draw24%
Madridejos18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Albacete II
1.71
Madridejos
0.82

Albacete II creates 109% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 29 away

creates per match

Albacete II
1.62
Madridejos
0.69

allows per match

Albacete II
0.95
Madridejos
1.79

finishing

Albacete II+0.00on par
Madridejos+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albacete II ↓

Madridejos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Albacete II or draw
82%
Albacete II or Madridejos
76%
Draw or Madridejos
42%

Winning margin

Albacete II wins by 2+
33%
Madridejos wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Albacete II 1+ goals
82%
Albacete II 2+ goals
51%
Albacete II 3+ goals
24%
Madridejos 1+ goals
56%
Madridejos 2+ goals
20%
Madridejos 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Albacete II (draw refunded)
77%
Madridejos (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albacete II at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.95 · 97 matches

Madridejos away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.79 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albacete II attack 1.62 + Madridejos defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.71

Madridejos attack 0.69 + Albacete II defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Albacete II scores more
58%
level
24%
Madridejos scores more
18%

Albacete II at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Albacete II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Albacete II 1 – 1 Madridejos

Albacete II and Madridejos drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on December 1, 2019.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Andrés Iniesta in Albacete.