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Albacete II vs Huracán Balazote — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Albacete II
Albacete II
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Huracán Balazote
Huracán Balazote
4/13/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 30Ciudad Deportiva Andrés Iniesta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Albacete II51%
×Draw26%
Huracán Balazote23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Albacete II
1.53
Huracán Balazote
0.95

Albacete II creates 61% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 81 away

creates per match

Albacete II
1.62
Huracán Balazote
0.95

allows per match

Albacete II
0.95
Huracán Balazote
1.44

finishing

Albacete II+0.00on par
Huracán Balazote+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albacete II ↓

Huracán Balazote →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Albacete II or draw
77%
Albacete II or Huracán Balazote
74%
Draw or Huracán Balazote
49%

Winning margin

Albacete II wins by 2+
26%
Huracán Balazote wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Albacete II 1+ goals
78%
Albacete II 2+ goals
45%
Albacete II 3+ goals
20%
Huracán Balazote 1+ goals
61%
Huracán Balazote 2+ goals
25%
Huracán Balazote 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Albacete II (draw refunded)
68%
Huracán Balazote (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albacete II at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.95 · 97 matches

Huracán Balazote away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.44 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albacete II attack 1.62 + Huracán Balazote defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.53

Huracán Balazote attack 0.95 + Albacete II defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Albacete II scores more
51%
level
26%
Huracán Balazote scores more
23%

Albacete II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Albacete II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Albacete II vs Huracán Balazote

Albacete II and Huracán Balazote drew 3-3 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on April 13, 2025.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Andrés Iniesta in Albacete.