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Albacete II vs Hogar Alcarreño — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Albacete II
Albacete II
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Hogar Alcarreño
Hogar Alcarreño
10/30/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 9Ciudad Deportiva 2 Albacete Andres Iniesta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Albacete II75%
×Draw16%
Hogar Alcarreño10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Albacete II
2.54
Hogar Alcarreño
0.80

Albacete II creates 217% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 17 away

creates per match

Albacete II
1.62
Hogar Alcarreño
0.65

allows per match

Albacete II
0.95
Hogar Alcarreño
3.47

finishing

Albacete II+0.00on par
Hogar Alcarreño+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albacete II ↓

Hogar Alcarreño →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Albacete II or draw
90%
Albacete II or Hogar Alcarreño
84%
Draw or Hogar Alcarreño
25%

Winning margin

Albacete II wins by 2+
53%
Hogar Alcarreño wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Albacete II 1+ goals
92%
Albacete II 2+ goals
72%
Albacete II 3+ goals
46%
Hogar Alcarreño 1+ goals
55%
Hogar Alcarreño 2+ goals
19%
Hogar Alcarreño 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Albacete II (draw refunded)
88%
Hogar Alcarreño (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albacete II at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.95 · 97 matches

Hogar Alcarreño away — creates 0.65, concedes 3.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albacete II attack 1.62 + Hogar Alcarreño defence 3.47 → ÷2 → 2.54

Hogar Alcarreño attack 0.65 + Albacete II defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Albacete II scores more
75%
level
16%
Hogar Alcarreño scores more
10%

Albacete II at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Albacete II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18: Albacete II 5–0 Hogar Alcarreño

Albacete II beat Hogar Alcarreño 5-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on October 30, 2021.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva 2 Albacete Andres Iniesta in Albacete.