Albacete II 1–0 Guadalajara II: Result & Stats

Albacete II

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Guadalajara II

3/1/2026

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 24Ciudad Deportiva Andrés Iniesta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Albacete II54%

×Draw26%

Guadalajara II19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Albacete IIExpected goals in this matchGuadalajara II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

0.77

Albacete II

1.49

Guadalajara II

0.77

Albacete II creates 94% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 17 away

1.62

creates per match

0.59

0.95

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Albacete II

1.62

Guadalajara II

0.59

allows per match

Albacete II

0.95

Guadalajara II

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Albacete II+0.00on par

Guadalajara II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albacete II ↓

Guadalajara II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Albacete II or draw

81%

Albacete II or Guadalajara II

74%

Draw or Guadalajara II

46%

Winning margin

Albacete II wins by 2+

28%

Guadalajara II wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Albacete II 1+ goals

77%

Albacete II 2+ goals

44%

Albacete II 3+ goals

19%

Guadalajara II 1+ goals

54%

Guadalajara II 2+ goals

18%

Guadalajara II 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Albacete II (draw refunded)

74%

Guadalajara II (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albacete II at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.95 · 97 matches

Guadalajara II away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albacete II attack 1.62 + Guadalajara II defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.49

Guadalajara II attack 0.59 + Albacete II defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Albacete II scores more

54%

level

26%

Guadalajara II scores more

19%

Albacete II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Albacete II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff