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Albacete II vs Atlético Tomelloso — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Albacete II
Albacete II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Atlético Tomelloso
Atlético Tomelloso
1/7/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 15Ciudad Deportiva Andrés Iniesta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Albacete II62%
×Draw23%
Atlético Tomelloso16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Albacete II
1.78
Atlético Tomelloso
0.76

Albacete II creates 134% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 32 away

creates per match

Albacete II
1.62
Atlético Tomelloso
0.56

allows per match

Albacete II
0.95
Atlético Tomelloso
1.94

finishing

Albacete II+0.00on par
Atlético Tomelloso+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albacete II ↓

Atlético Tomelloso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Albacete II or draw
84%
Albacete II or Atlético Tomelloso
77%
Draw or Atlético Tomelloso
38%

Winning margin

Albacete II wins by 2+
36%
Atlético Tomelloso wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Albacete II 1+ goals
83%
Albacete II 2+ goals
53%
Albacete II 3+ goals
26%
Atlético Tomelloso 1+ goals
53%
Atlético Tomelloso 2+ goals
18%
Atlético Tomelloso 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Albacete II (draw refunded)
80%
Atlético Tomelloso (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albacete II at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.95 · 97 matches

Atlético Tomelloso away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.94 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albacete II attack 1.62 + Atlético Tomelloso defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.78

Atlético Tomelloso attack 0.56 + Albacete II defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Albacete II scores more
62%
level
23%
Atlético Tomelloso scores more
16%

Albacete II at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Albacete II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Albacete II vs Atlético Tomelloso

Albacete II beat Atlético Tomelloso 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on January 7, 2024.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Andrés Iniesta in Albacete.