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Alay vs Istiqlol — AFC Cup 2018

Alay
Alay
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Istiqlol
Istiqlol
4/25/2018AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 4Ahmatbek Suyumbayev atyndagy Stadion (Osh)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Alay37%
×Draw19%
Istiqlol44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alay
2.29
Istiqlol
2.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 12 away

creates per match

Alay
2.40
Istiqlol
1.17

allows per match

Alay
3.80
Istiqlol
2.17

finishing

Alay+0.00on par
Istiqlol+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alay ↓

Istiqlol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–26%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
51%49%

Double chance

Alay or draw
56%
Alay or Istiqlol
81%
Draw or Istiqlol
63%

Winning margin

Alay wins by 2+
21%
Istiqlol wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Alay 1+ goals
90%
Alay 2+ goals
66%
Alay 3+ goals
40%
Istiqlol 1+ goals
92%
Istiqlol 2+ goals
70%
Istiqlol 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Alay (draw refunded)
46%
Istiqlol (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
77%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alay at home — creates 2.40, concedes 3.80 · 5 matches

Istiqlol away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.17 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alay attack 2.40 + Istiqlol defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.29

Istiqlol attack 1.17 + Alay defence 3.80 → ÷2 → 2.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Alay scores more
37%
level
19%
Istiqlol scores more
44%

Istiqlol at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Istiqlol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Alay 2 – 3 Istiqlol

Istiqlol beat Alay 3-2 in AFC Cup on April 25, 2018.

The match was played at Ahmatbek Suyumbayev atyndagy Stadion (Osh).