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Alay vs Ahal — AFC Cup 2018

Alay
Alay
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Ahal
Ahal
5/16/2018AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 6Ahmatbek Suyumbayev atyndagy Stadion (Osh)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Alay25%
×Draw18%
Ahal56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alay
1.77
Ahal
2.67

Ahal creates 51% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 13 away

creates per match

Alay
2.40
Ahal
1.54

allows per match

Alay
3.80
Ahal
1.15

finishing

Alay+0.00on par
Ahal+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alay ↓

Ahal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Alay or draw
44%
Alay or Ahal
82%
Draw or Ahal
75%

Winning margin

Alay wins by 2+
12%
Ahal wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Alay 1+ goals
83%
Alay 2+ goals
53%
Alay 3+ goals
26%
Ahal 1+ goals
93%
Ahal 2+ goals
74%
Ahal 3+ goals
49%

Draw no bet

Alay (draw refunded)
31%
Ahal (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alay at home — creates 2.40, concedes 3.80 · 5 matches

Ahal away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alay attack 2.40 + Ahal defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.77

Ahal attack 1.54 + Alay defence 3.80 → ÷2 → 2.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Alay scores more
25%
level
18%
Ahal scores more
56%

Ahal at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Ahal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Cup: Alay 2–3 Ahal

Ahal beat Alay 3-2 in AFC Cup on May 16, 2018.

The match was played at Ahmatbek Suyumbayev atyndagy Stadion (Osh).