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Alaves vs Mirandes — Segunda División 2018

Alaves
Alaves
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Mirandes
Mirandes
Xeber Alkain 43'
8/19/2022Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 2Estadio de Mendizorroza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Alaves52%
×Draw28%
Mirandes20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alaves
1.39
Mirandes
0.74

Alaves creates 88% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 149 away

creates per match

Alaves
1.30
Mirandes
1.00

allows per match

Alaves
0.48
Mirandes
1.48

finishing

Alaves+0.00on par
Mirandes+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alaves ↓

Mirandes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Alaves or draw
80%
Alaves or Mirandes
72%
Draw or Mirandes
48%

Winning margin

Alaves wins by 2+
26%
Mirandes wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Alaves 1+ goals
75%
Alaves 2+ goals
40%
Alaves 3+ goals
16%
Mirandes 1+ goals
52%
Mirandes 2+ goals
17%
Mirandes 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Alaves (draw refunded)
72%
Mirandes (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alaves at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.48 · 23 matches

Mirandes away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.48 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alaves attack 1.30 + Mirandes defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.39

Mirandes attack 1.00 + Alaves defence 0.48 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Alaves scores more
52%
level
28%
Mirandes scores more
20%

Alaves at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Alaves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
N. TenagliaAlavesAlaves · D
7.5

Match Events

40'
Raúl Parra
43'
Xeber Alkain
60'
Javi López
61'
Luis Rioja
65'
Jofre Carreras← Juanlu Sánchez
65'
Manu García← Oriol Rey
73'
Rubén Duarte← Javi López
73'
M. Sylla← Miguel de la Fuente
81'
Jason← Xeber Alkain
81'
A. Rebbach← Luis Rioja
88'
Álex Martín
88'
Toni Moya← Jon Guridi
90+1'
Nikolaos Michelis

Possession

44%Alaves

Shots

15Alaves

Pass accuracy

47%Alaves

Statistics

AlavesMirandes
Overview
44%Possession56%
15Total Shots12
3Corners6
13Fouls12
Shots
15Total Shots12
5On Target1
8Off Target7
2Blocked4
11Inside Box8
4Outside Box4
Passing
44%Possession56%
327Total Passes416
217Accurate Passes314
66%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
13Fouls12
2Yellow Cards3
2Offsides1

Segunda División: Alaves 1–0 Mirandes

Alaves beat Mirandes 1-0 in Segunda División on August 19, 2022.

Goals: Xeber Alkain (43').

Mirandes controlled possession (56%) and registered 12 shots to 15.

The match was played at Estadio de Mendizorroza in Vitoria-Gasteiz.