Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Alashkert vs West Armenia — Premier League 2019

Alashkert
Alashkert
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
West Armenia
West Armenia
9/28/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 9Kotaik Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Alashkert58%
×Draw23%
West Armenia20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alashkert
1.83
West Armenia
0.96

Alashkert creates 91% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 31 away

creates per match

Alashkert
1.27
West Armenia
0.90

allows per match

Alashkert
1.01
West Armenia
2.39

finishing

Alashkert+0.00on par
West Armenia+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alashkert ↓

West Armenia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Alashkert or draw
80%
Alashkert or West Armenia
77%
Draw or West Armenia
42%

Winning margin

Alashkert wins by 2+
33%
West Armenia wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Alashkert 1+ goals
84%
Alashkert 2+ goals
54%
Alashkert 3+ goals
28%
West Armenia 1+ goals
62%
West Armenia 2+ goals
25%
West Armenia 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Alashkert (draw refunded)
75%
West Armenia (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alashkert at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.01 · 106 matches

West Armenia away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.39 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alashkert attack 1.27 + West Armenia defence 2.39 → ÷2 → 1.83

West Armenia attack 0.90 + Alashkert defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Alashkert scores more
58%
level
23%
West Armenia scores more
20%

Alashkert at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Alashkert will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Alashkert 0–2 West Armenia

West Armenia beat Alashkert 2-0 in Premier League on September 28, 2024.

The match was played at Kotaik Stadium in Abovian.