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Alashkert vs Shirak — Premier League 2019

Alashkert
Alashkert
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Shirak
Shirak
11/4/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 15Kotaik Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Alashkert52%
×Draw25%
Shirak23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alashkert
1.57
Shirak
0.96

Alashkert creates 64% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 91 away

creates per match

Alashkert
1.27
Shirak
0.90

allows per match

Alashkert
1.01
Shirak
1.88

finishing

Alashkert+0.00on par
Shirak+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alashkert ↓

Shirak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Alashkert or draw
77%
Alashkert or Shirak
75%
Draw or Shirak
48%

Winning margin

Alashkert wins by 2+
27%
Shirak wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Alashkert 1+ goals
79%
Alashkert 2+ goals
46%
Alashkert 3+ goals
21%
Shirak 1+ goals
62%
Shirak 2+ goals
25%
Shirak 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Alashkert (draw refunded)
69%
Shirak (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alashkert at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.01 · 106 matches

Shirak away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.88 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alashkert attack 1.27 + Shirak defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.57

Shirak attack 0.90 + Alashkert defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Alashkert scores more
52%
level
25%
Shirak scores more
23%

Alashkert at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Alashkert will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alashkert vs Shirak

Shirak beat Alashkert 3-1 in Premier League on November 4, 2024.

The match was played at Kotaik Stadium in Abovian.