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Alashkert vs Sevan — Premier League 2019

Alashkert
Alashkert
CANC
00:00
Sevan
Sevan
3/10/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 23Stadion Nairi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Alashkert48%
×Draw29%
Sevan23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alashkert
1.28
Sevan
0.79

Alashkert creates 62% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 7 away

creates per match

Alashkert
1.27
Sevan
0.57

allows per match

Alashkert
1.01
Sevan
1.29

finishing

Alashkert+0.00on par
Sevan+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alashkert ↓

Sevan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Alashkert or draw
77%
Alashkert or Sevan
71%
Draw or Sevan
52%

Winning margin

Alashkert wins by 2+
22%
Sevan wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Alashkert 1+ goals
72%
Alashkert 2+ goals
37%
Alashkert 3+ goals
14%
Sevan 1+ goals
55%
Sevan 2+ goals
19%
Sevan 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Alashkert (draw refunded)
68%
Sevan (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alashkert at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.01 · 106 matches

Sevan away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alashkert attack 1.27 + Sevan defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.28

Sevan attack 0.57 + Alashkert defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Alashkert scores more
48%
level
29%
Sevan scores more
23%

Alashkert at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Alashkert will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Alashkert host Sevan

March 10, 2022: Alashkert take on Sevan in Premier League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Alashkert host Sevan at Stadion Nairi.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.