Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Alashkert vs Pyunik Yerevan — Premier League 2019

Alashkert
Alashkert
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Pyunik Yerevan
Pyunik Yerevan
2/25/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 20Junior Sport Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Alashkert29%
×Draw27%
Pyunik Yerevan44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alashkert
1.06
Pyunik Yerevan
1.38

Pyunik Yerevan creates 30% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 107 away

creates per match

Alashkert
1.27
Pyunik Yerevan
1.75

allows per match

Alashkert
1.01
Pyunik Yerevan
0.85

finishing

Alashkert+0.00on par
Pyunik Yerevan+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alashkert ↓

Pyunik Yerevan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Alashkert or draw
56%
Alashkert or Pyunik Yerevan
73%
Draw or Pyunik Yerevan
71%

Winning margin

Alashkert wins by 2+
11%
Pyunik Yerevan wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Alashkert 1+ goals
65%
Alashkert 2+ goals
29%
Alashkert 3+ goals
9%
Pyunik Yerevan 1+ goals
75%
Pyunik Yerevan 2+ goals
40%
Pyunik Yerevan 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Alashkert (draw refunded)
40%
Pyunik Yerevan (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alashkert at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.01 · 106 matches

Pyunik Yerevan away — creates 1.75, concedes 0.85 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alashkert attack 1.27 + Pyunik Yerevan defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.06

Pyunik Yerevan attack 1.75 + Alashkert defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Alashkert scores more
29%
level
27%
Pyunik Yerevan scores more
44%

Pyunik Yerevan at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Pyunik Yerevan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alashkert vs Pyunik Yerevan

Pyunik Yerevan beat Alashkert 2-0 in Premier League on February 25, 2025.

The match was played at Junior Sport Stadium in Yerevan.