Alashkert 0–3 FCSB: Result & Stats

Alashkert

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

FCSB

F. Coman 82'

I. Cristea 68'

F. Tănase 60'

7/25/2019

UEFA Europa League · 2nd Qualifying RoundYerevan Football Academy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Alashkert29%

×Draw28%

FCSB43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlashkertExpected goals in this matchFCSB

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.32

Alashkert

1.02

FCSB

1.32

FCSB creates 29% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 10 away

0.75

creates per match

1.40

1.25

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Alashkert

0.75

FCSB

1.40

allows per match

Alashkert

1.25

FCSB

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alashkert+0.00on par

FCSB+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alashkert ↓

FCSB →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–113%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Alashkert or draw

57%

Alashkert or FCSB

72%

Draw or FCSB

71%

Winning margin

Alashkert wins by 2+

11%

FCSB wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Alashkert 1+ goals

64%

Alashkert 2+ goals

27%

Alashkert 3+ goals

8%

FCSB 1+ goals

73%

FCSB 2+ goals

38%

FCSB 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Alashkert (draw refunded)

40%

FCSB (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alashkert at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

FCSB away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alashkert attack 0.75 + FCSB defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.02

FCSB attack 1.40 + Alashkert defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Alashkert scores more

29%

level

28%

FCSB scores more

43%

FCSB at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "FCSB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

Iulian Cristea

46'

R. Oaidă← A. Hora

55'

G. Kadimyan← N. Tankov

60'

F. Tănase

65'

Gustavo Marmentini← D. Sekulić

68'

I. Cristea

72'

V. Poghosyan← U. Nenadović

76'

Artak Grigoryan

77'

Diogo Salomão← D. Man

82'

F. Coman

88'

Taron Voskanyan

90+1'

O. Perianu← F. Coman

Alashkert4-1-4-1

FCSB4-3-3

7

⚽

▼

Coman

21

▼

Hora

98

▼

Man

10

⚽

6

20

8

16

17

⚽

23

99

55

8

22

6

3

21

15

▼

Nenadović

11

Hayrapety

17

▼

Sekulić

18

Cametá

19

▼

Tankov

Manager: A. Khashmanyan

55'▲G. Kadimyan←▼N. Tankov

65'▲Gustavo Marmentini←▼D. Sekulić

72'▲V. Poghosyan←▼U. Nenadović

Alashkert substitutes

1Avagyan5Stojković9Galvão14Shahinyan10Marmentini20Pogosyan77Kadimyan

Manager: Bogdan Andone

46'▲R. Oaidă←▼A. Hora

77'▲Diogo Salomão←▼D. Man

90+1'▲O. Perianu←▼F. Coman

FCSB substitutes

34Bălgrădean70Belu14Moutinho30Ardelean24Salomão26Răzvan Oaidă25Perianu