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Alashkert vs FC Urartu — Premier League 2019

Alashkert
Alashkert
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
FC Urartu
FC Urartu
11/29/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 15Alashkert Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Alashkert33%
×Draw28%
FC Urartu39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alashkert
1.14
FC Urartu
1.25

FC Urartu creates 10% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 105 away

creates per match

Alashkert
1.27
FC Urartu
1.49

allows per match

Alashkert
1.01
FC Urartu
1.01

finishing

Alashkert+0.00on par
FC Urartu+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alashkert ↓

FC Urartu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Alashkert or draw
61%
Alashkert or FC Urartu
72%
Draw or FC Urartu
67%

Winning margin

Alashkert wins by 2+
14%
FC Urartu wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Alashkert 1+ goals
68%
Alashkert 2+ goals
32%
Alashkert 3+ goals
11%
FC Urartu 1+ goals
71%
FC Urartu 2+ goals
36%
FC Urartu 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Alashkert (draw refunded)
46%
FC Urartu (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alashkert at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.01 · 106 matches

FC Urartu away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.01 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alashkert attack 1.27 + FC Urartu defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.14

FC Urartu attack 1.49 + Alashkert defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Alashkert scores more
33%
level
28%
FC Urartu scores more
39%

FC Urartu at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "FC Urartu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alashkert vs FC Urartu

FC Urartu beat Alashkert 2-0 in Premier League on November 29, 2025.

The match was played at Alashkert Stadium in Yerevan.