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Alashkert II vs Noah II — First League 2019

Alashkert II
Alashkert II
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Noah II
Noah II
9/1/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 6Kasakhi Marzik Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Alashkert II35%
×Draw22%
Noah II43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alashkert II
1.71
Noah II
1.92

Noah II creates 12% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 41 away

creates per match

Alashkert II
1.63
Noah II
1.51

allows per match

Alashkert II
2.34
Noah II
1.80

finishing

Alashkert II+0.00on par
Noah II+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alashkert II ↓

Noah II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Alashkert II or draw
57%
Alashkert II or Noah II
78%
Draw or Noah II
65%

Winning margin

Alashkert II wins by 2+
17%
Noah II wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Alashkert II 1+ goals
82%
Alashkert II 2+ goals
51%
Alashkert II 3+ goals
24%
Noah II 1+ goals
85%
Noah II 2+ goals
57%
Noah II 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Alashkert II (draw refunded)
45%
Noah II (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alashkert II at home — creates 1.63, concedes 2.34 · 62 matches

Noah II away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.80 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alashkert II attack 1.63 + Noah II defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.71

Noah II attack 1.51 + Alashkert II defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Alashkert II scores more
35%
level
22%
Noah II scores more
43%

Noah II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Noah II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alashkert II vs Noah II

Alashkert II beat Noah II 4-1 in First League on September 1, 2023.

The match was played at Kasakhi Marzik Stadium in Ashtarak.