Alashkert II 5–0 Masis: Result & Stats

Alashkert II

FT

5 – 0

Masis

11/22/2019

First League · Round 15Pyunik Training Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Alashkert II46%

×Draw21%

Masis33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alashkert IIExpected goals in this matchMasis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

1.74

Alashkert II

2.10

Masis

1.74

Alashkert II creates 21% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 14 away

1.63

creates per match

1.14

2.34

allows per match

2.57

creates per match

Alashkert II

1.63

Masis

1.14

allows per match

Alashkert II

2.34

Masis

2.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alashkert II+0.00on par

Masis+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alashkert II ↓

Masis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Alashkert II or draw

67%

Alashkert II or Masis

79%

Draw or Masis

54%

Winning margin

Alashkert II wins by 2+

27%

Masis wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Alashkert II 1+ goals

88%

Alashkert II 2+ goals

62%

Alashkert II 3+ goals

35%

Masis 1+ goals

82%

Masis 2+ goals

52%

Masis 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Alashkert II (draw refunded)

59%

Masis (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alashkert II at home — creates 1.63, concedes 2.34 · 62 matches

Masis away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.57 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alashkert II attack 1.63 + Masis defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.10

Masis attack 1.14 + Alashkert II defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Alashkert II scores more

46%

level

21%

Masis scores more

33%

Alashkert II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Alashkert II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff