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Alashkert II vs Lernayin Artsakh — First League 2019

Alashkert II
Alashkert II
FT
0 – 5
Lernayin Artsakh
Lernayin Artsakh
10/16/2021First LeagueFirst League · Round 9Fut Akademia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Alashkert II31%
×Draw21%
Lernayin Artsakh48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alashkert II
1.61
Lernayin Artsakh
2.04

Lernayin Artsakh creates 27% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 81 away

creates per match

Alashkert II
1.63
Lernayin Artsakh
1.74

allows per match

Alashkert II
2.34
Lernayin Artsakh
1.60

finishing

Alashkert II+0.00on par
Lernayin Artsakh+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alashkert II ↓

Lernayin Artsakh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Alashkert II or draw
52%
Alashkert II or Lernayin Artsakh
79%
Draw or Lernayin Artsakh
69%

Winning margin

Alashkert II wins by 2+
15%
Lernayin Artsakh wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Alashkert II 1+ goals
80%
Alashkert II 2+ goals
48%
Alashkert II 3+ goals
22%
Lernayin Artsakh 1+ goals
87%
Lernayin Artsakh 2+ goals
60%
Lernayin Artsakh 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Alashkert II (draw refunded)
39%
Lernayin Artsakh (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alashkert II at home — creates 1.63, concedes 2.34 · 62 matches

Lernayin Artsakh away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.60 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alashkert II attack 1.63 + Lernayin Artsakh defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.61

Lernayin Artsakh attack 1.74 + Alashkert II defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Alashkert II scores more
31%
level
21%
Lernayin Artsakh scores more
48%

Lernayin Artsakh at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Lernayin Artsakh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Alashkert II 0–5 Lernayin Artsakh

Lernayin Artsakh beat Alashkert II 5-0 in First League on October 16, 2021.

The match was played at Fut Akademia in Ejmiatsin.