Alanyaspor 1–1 Gaziantep FK: Result & Stats

Alanyaspor

AET

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Gaziantep FK

3/3/2022

Türkiye Kupası · Quarter-finalsBahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Alanyaspor61%

×Draw19%

Gaziantep FK20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlanyasporExpected goals in this matchGaziantep FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.47

1.35

Alanyaspor

2.47

Gaziantep FK

1.35

Alanyaspor creates 83% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 10 away

3.24

creates per match

1.80

0.90

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Alanyaspor

3.24

Gaziantep FK

1.80

allows per match

Alanyaspor

0.90

Gaziantep FK

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alanyaspor+0.00on par

Gaziantep FK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alanyaspor ↓

Gaziantep FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Alanyaspor or draw

80%

Alanyaspor or Gaziantep FK

81%

Draw or Gaziantep FK

39%

Winning margin

Alanyaspor wins by 2+

40%

Gaziantep FK wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Alanyaspor 1+ goals

91%

Alanyaspor 2+ goals

70%

Alanyaspor 3+ goals

44%

Gaziantep FK 1+ goals

74%

Gaziantep FK 2+ goals

39%

Gaziantep FK 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Alanyaspor (draw refunded)

76%

Gaziantep FK (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alanyaspor at home — creates 3.24, concedes 0.90 · 21 matches

Gaziantep FK away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.70 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alanyaspor attack 3.24 + Gaziantep FK defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 2.47

Gaziantep FK attack 1.80 + Alanyaspor defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Alanyaspor scores more

61%

level

19%

Gaziantep FK scores more

20%

Alanyaspor at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Alanyaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff