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Alanyaspor vs Arda Kardzhali — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Alanyaspor
Alanyaspor
CANC
00:00
Arda Kardzhali
Arda Kardzhali
1/23/2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 2TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Alanyaspor52%
×Draw27%
Arda Kardzhali22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alanyaspor
1.47
Arda Kardzhali
0.85

Alanyaspor creates 73% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 11 away

creates per match

Alanyaspor
1.67
Arda Kardzhali
1.36

allows per match

Alanyaspor
0.33
Arda Kardzhali
1.27

finishing

Alanyaspor+0.00on par
Arda Kardzhali+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alanyaspor ↓

Arda Kardzhali →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Alanyaspor or draw
78%
Alanyaspor or Arda Kardzhali
73%
Draw or Arda Kardzhali
48%

Winning margin

Alanyaspor wins by 2+
26%
Arda Kardzhali wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Alanyaspor 1+ goals
77%
Alanyaspor 2+ goals
43%
Alanyaspor 3+ goals
18%
Arda Kardzhali 1+ goals
57%
Arda Kardzhali 2+ goals
21%
Arda Kardzhali 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Alanyaspor (draw refunded)
70%
Arda Kardzhali (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alanyaspor at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Arda Kardzhali away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alanyaspor attack 1.67 + Arda Kardzhali defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.47

Arda Kardzhali attack 1.36 + Alanyaspor defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Alanyaspor scores more
52%
level
27%
Arda Kardzhali scores more
22%

Alanyaspor at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Alanyaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Alanyaspor face Arda Kardzhali (Friendlies Clubs)

Friendlies Clubs returns with Alanyaspor hosting Arda Kardzhali. Match starts January 23, 2023. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Alanyaspor host Arda Kardzhali at TBC.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.