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Alanya 1221 FK vs Muğlaspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Alanya 1221 FK
Alanya 1221 FK
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Muğlaspor
Muğlaspor
9/3/2025Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 1st RoundMilli Egemenlik Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Alanya 1221 FK31%
×Draw26%
Muğlaspor43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alanya 1221 FK
1.17
Muğlaspor
1.42

Muğlaspor creates 21% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Alanya 1221 FK
1.33
Muğlaspor
1.83

allows per match

Alanya 1221 FK
1.00
Muğlaspor
1.00

finishing

Alanya 1221 FK+0.00on par
Muğlaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alanya 1221 FK ↓

Muğlaspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Alanya 1221 FK or draw
57%
Alanya 1221 FK or Muğlaspor
74%
Draw or Muğlaspor
69%

Winning margin

Alanya 1221 FK wins by 2+
13%
Muğlaspor wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Alanya 1221 FK 1+ goals
69%
Alanya 1221 FK 2+ goals
33%
Alanya 1221 FK 3+ goals
11%
Muğlaspor 1+ goals
76%
Muğlaspor 2+ goals
41%
Muğlaspor 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Alanya 1221 FK (draw refunded)
42%
Muğlaspor (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alanya 1221 FK at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Muğlaspor away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alanya 1221 FK attack 1.33 + Muğlaspor defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Muğlaspor attack 1.83 + Alanya 1221 FK defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Alanya 1221 FK scores more
31%
level
26%
Muğlaspor scores more
43%

Muğlaspor at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Muğlaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Alanya 1221 FK 0–3 Muğlaspor

Muğlaspor beat Alanya 1221 FK 3-0 in Türkiye Kupası on September 3, 2025.

The match was played at Milli Egemenlik Stadyumu in Antalya.