Alanya 1221 FK 2–0 Karaman FK: Result & Stats

Alanya 1221 FK

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Karaman FK

10/14/2020

Türkiye Kupası · 1st RoundMilli Egemenlik Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Alanya 1221 FK49%

×Draw28%

Karaman FK23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alanya 1221 FKExpected goals in this matchKaraman FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.85

Alanya 1221 FK

1.38

Karaman FK

0.85

Alanya 1221 FK creates 62% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

1.33

creates per match

0.71

1.00

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Alanya 1221 FK

1.33

Karaman FK

0.71

allows per match

Alanya 1221 FK

1.00

Karaman FK

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alanya 1221 FK+0.00on par

Karaman FK+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alanya 1221 FK ↓

Karaman FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Alanya 1221 FK or draw

77%

Alanya 1221 FK or Karaman FK

72%

Draw or Karaman FK

51%

Winning margin

Alanya 1221 FK wins by 2+

24%

Karaman FK wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Alanya 1221 FK 1+ goals

75%

Alanya 1221 FK 2+ goals

40%

Alanya 1221 FK 3+ goals

16%

Karaman FK 1+ goals

57%

Karaman FK 2+ goals

21%

Karaman FK 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Alanya 1221 FK (draw refunded)

68%

Karaman FK (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alanya 1221 FK at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Karaman FK away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alanya 1221 FK attack 1.33 + Karaman FK defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.38

Karaman FK attack 0.71 + Alanya 1221 FK defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Alanya 1221 FK scores more

49%

level

28%

Karaman FK scores more

23%

Alanya 1221 FK at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Alanya 1221 FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff