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Alanya 1221 FK vs Adıyaman 1954 — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Alanya 1221 FK
Alanya 1221 FK
AET
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Adıyaman 1954
Adıyaman 1954
10/29/2024Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundMilli Egemenlik Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Alanya 1221 FK51%
×Draw23%
Adıyaman 195426%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alanya 1221 FK
1.77
Adıyaman 1954
1.20

Alanya 1221 FK creates 48% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Alanya 1221 FK
1.33
Adıyaman 1954
1.40

allows per match

Alanya 1221 FK
1.00
Adıyaman 1954
2.20

finishing

Alanya 1221 FK+0.00on par
Adıyaman 1954+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alanya 1221 FK ↓

Adıyaman 1954 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Alanya 1221 FK or draw
74%
Alanya 1221 FK or Adıyaman 1954
77%
Draw or Adıyaman 1954
49%

Winning margin

Alanya 1221 FK wins by 2+
28%
Adıyaman 1954 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Alanya 1221 FK 1+ goals
83%
Alanya 1221 FK 2+ goals
53%
Alanya 1221 FK 3+ goals
26%
Adıyaman 1954 1+ goals
70%
Adıyaman 1954 2+ goals
34%
Adıyaman 1954 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Alanya 1221 FK (draw refunded)
66%
Adıyaman 1954 (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alanya 1221 FK at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Adıyaman 1954 away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alanya 1221 FK attack 1.33 + Adıyaman 1954 defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.77

Adıyaman 1954 attack 1.40 + Alanya 1221 FK defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Alanya 1221 FK scores more
51%
level
23%
Adıyaman 1954 scores more
26%

Alanya 1221 FK at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Alanya 1221 FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Alanya 1221 FK 1–1 Adıyaman 1954

Alanya 1221 FK and Adıyaman 1954 drew 1-1 in Türkiye Kupası on October 29, 2024.

The match was played at Milli Egemenlik Stadyumu in Alanya.