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Alaniya Vladikavkaz vs Volga Ulyanovsk — First League 2018

Alaniya Vladikavkaz
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Volga Ulyanovsk
Volga Ulyanovsk
8/27/2022First LeagueFirst League · Round 7Stadion im. Sultana Bilimkhanova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz45%
×Draw27%
Volga Ulyanovsk28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.39
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.04

Alaniya Vladikavkaz creates 34% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 34 away

creates per match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.57
Volga Ulyanovsk
0.85

allows per match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.24
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.21

finishing

Alaniya Vladikavkaz+0.00on par
Volga Ulyanovsk+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alaniya Vladikavkaz ↓

Volga Ulyanovsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Alaniya Vladikavkaz or draw
72%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz or Volga Ulyanovsk
73%
Draw or Volga Ulyanovsk
55%

Winning margin

Alaniya Vladikavkaz wins by 2+
21%
Volga Ulyanovsk wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 1+ goals
75%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz 2+ goals
40%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz 3+ goals
16%
Volga Ulyanovsk 1+ goals
65%
Volga Ulyanovsk 2+ goals
28%
Volga Ulyanovsk 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Alaniya Vladikavkaz (draw refunded)
61%
Volga Ulyanovsk (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alaniya Vladikavkaz at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.24 · 70 matches

Volga Ulyanovsk away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.21 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz attack 1.57 + Volga Ulyanovsk defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.39

Volga Ulyanovsk attack 0.85 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Alaniya Vladikavkaz scores more
45%
level
27%
Volga Ulyanovsk scores more
28%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Alaniya Vladikavkaz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alaniya Vladikavkaz vs Volga Ulyanovsk

Volga Ulyanovsk beat Alaniya Vladikavkaz 2-1 in First League on August 27, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion im. Sultana Bilimkhanova in Groznyi.