Alaniya Vladikavkaz 2–1 Veles: Result & Stats

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Veles

David Kobesov 29'

A. Eldarushev 3'

V. Kabakhidze 59'

11/27/2021

First League · Round 25Stadion im. Sultana Bilimkhanova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz46%

×Draw26%

Veles28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alaniya VladikavkazExpected goals in this matchVeles

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.09

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

1.46

Veles

1.09

Alaniya Vladikavkaz creates 34% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 58 away

1.57

creates per match

0.95

1.24

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

1.57

Veles

0.95

allows per match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

1.24

Veles

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alaniya Vladikavkaz+0.00on par

Veles+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alaniya Vladikavkaz ↓

Veles →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Alaniya Vladikavkaz or draw

72%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz or Veles

74%

Draw or Veles

54%

Winning margin

Alaniya Vladikavkaz wins by 2+

22%

Veles wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 1+ goals

77%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 2+ goals

43%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 3+ goals

18%

Veles 1+ goals

66%

Veles 2+ goals

30%

Veles 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Alaniya Vladikavkaz (draw refunded)

62%

Veles (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alaniya Vladikavkaz at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.24 · 70 matches

Veles away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.34 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz attack 1.57 + Veles defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.46

Veles attack 0.95 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Alaniya Vladikavkaz scores more

46%

level

26%

Veles scores more

28%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Alaniya Vladikavkaz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

29'

33'

44'

48'

49'

R. Sosranov← S. Kachmazov

55'

55'

59'

60'

60'

B. Khadartsev← David Kobesov

60'

A. Zaseev← A. Eldarushev

60'

B. Kokoev← D. Dzakhov

62'

68'

69'

76'

87'

D. Lopatin← M. Mitrishev

90+2'

Dmitri Kobesov← A. Khabalov

Alaniya3-5-2

Veles3-5-1-1

95

▼

Mitrishev

69

▼

Vulfov

20

Galoyan

81

⚽

10

11

2

5

24

34

35

31

15

19

4

▼

Kachmazov

80

Khosonov

97

Magomedov

77

▼

Khabalov

8

Khugaev

17

▼

Dzakhov

70

⚽

▼

Eldarushe

18

⚽

▼

Kobesov

Manager: S. Gogniev

49'▲R. Sosranov←▼S. Kachmazov

60'▲B. Khadartsev←▼David Kobesov

60'▲A. Zaseev←▼A. Eldarushev

60'▲B. Kokoev←▼D. Dzakhov

90+2'▲Dmitri Kobesov←▼A. Khabalov

Alaniya Vladikavkaz substitutes

23Sosranov10Khadartsev13Zaseev21Kokoev88Kobesov25Gioev27Gogniev33Tuaev35Dzhioev34Tsallagov52Khokrishvili75Kodzasov

Manager: A. Kulikov

69'▲D. Ezhkov←▼A. Vulfov

87'▲D. Lopatin←▼M. Mitrishev

Veles substitutes

33Ezhkov77Lopatin1Grab6Anisimov13Tarasov

First League: Alaniya Vladikavkaz 2–1 Veles

Alaniya Vladikavkaz beat Veles 2-1 in First League on November 27, 2021.

Goals: A. Eldarushev (3'), David Kobesov (29'), V. Kabakhidze (59').

The match was played at Stadion im. Sultana Bilimkhanova in Groznyi.

Alaniya Vladikavkaz vs Veles — First League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

First League: Alaniya Vladikavkaz 2–1 Veles