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Alaniya Vladikavkaz vs TOM Tomsk — First League 2018

Alaniya Vladikavkaz
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
TOM Tomsk
TOM Tomsk
4/16/2022First LeagueFirst League · Round 33Stadion im. Sultana Bilimkhanova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz46%
×Draw26%
TOM Tomsk28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.45
TOM Tomsk
1.07

Alaniya Vladikavkaz creates 36% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 74 away

creates per match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.57
TOM Tomsk
0.91

allows per match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.24
TOM Tomsk
1.32

finishing

Alaniya Vladikavkaz+0.00on par
TOM Tomsk+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alaniya Vladikavkaz ↓

TOM Tomsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Alaniya Vladikavkaz or draw
72%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz or TOM Tomsk
74%
Draw or TOM Tomsk
54%

Winning margin

Alaniya Vladikavkaz wins by 2+
22%
TOM Tomsk wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 1+ goals
77%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz 2+ goals
42%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz 3+ goals
18%
TOM Tomsk 1+ goals
66%
TOM Tomsk 2+ goals
29%
TOM Tomsk 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Alaniya Vladikavkaz (draw refunded)
62%
TOM Tomsk (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alaniya Vladikavkaz at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.24 · 70 matches

TOM Tomsk away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.32 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz attack 1.57 + TOM Tomsk defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.45

TOM Tomsk attack 0.91 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Alaniya Vladikavkaz scores more
46%
level
26%
TOM Tomsk scores more
28%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Alaniya Vladikavkaz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alaniya Vladikavkaz vs TOM Tomsk

Alaniya Vladikavkaz beat TOM Tomsk 3-0 in First League on April 16, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion im. Sultana Bilimkhanova in Groznyi.