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Alaniya Vladikavkaz vs Shinnik Yaroslavl — First League 2018

Alaniya Vladikavkaz
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Shinnik Yaroslavl
Shinnik Yaroslavl
10/1/2022First LeagueFirst League · Round 12Stadion im. Sultana Bilimkhanova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz47%
×Draw26%
Shinnik Yaroslavl28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.52
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.11

Alaniya Vladikavkaz creates 37% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 123 away

creates per match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.57
Shinnik Yaroslavl
0.99

allows per match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.24
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.48

finishing

Alaniya Vladikavkaz+0.00on par
Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alaniya Vladikavkaz ↓

Shinnik Yaroslavl →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Alaniya Vladikavkaz or draw
72%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz or Shinnik Yaroslavl
74%
Draw or Shinnik Yaroslavl
53%

Winning margin

Alaniya Vladikavkaz wins by 2+
23%
Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 1+ goals
78%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz 2+ goals
45%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz 3+ goals
20%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals
67%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals
30%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Alaniya Vladikavkaz (draw refunded)
63%
Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alaniya Vladikavkaz at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.24 · 70 matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.48 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz attack 1.57 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.52

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 0.99 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Alaniya Vladikavkaz scores more
47%
level
26%
Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more
28%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Alaniya Vladikavkaz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alaniya Vladikavkaz vs Shinnik Yaroslavl

Alaniya Vladikavkaz beat Shinnik Yaroslavl 3-1 in First League on October 1, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion im. Sultana Bilimkhanova in Groznyi.