Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Alaniya Vladikavkaz vs Rotor Volgograd — First League 2018

Alaniya Vladikavkaz
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Rotor Volgograd
Rotor Volgograd
A. Bagaev 90+2'
M. Maltsev 34'
D. Lavrishchev 17'
T. Kasimov 11'
11/16/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 19Stadion im. Sultana Bilimkhanova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz39%
×Draw28%
Rotor Volgograd34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.26
Rotor Volgograd
1.15

Alaniya Vladikavkaz creates 10% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 88 away

creates per match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.57
Rotor Volgograd
1.06

allows per match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.24
Rotor Volgograd
0.95

finishing

Alaniya Vladikavkaz+0.00on par
Rotor Volgograd+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alaniya Vladikavkaz ↓

Rotor Volgograd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Alaniya Vladikavkaz or draw
66%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz or Rotor Volgograd
72%
Draw or Rotor Volgograd
61%

Winning margin

Alaniya Vladikavkaz wins by 2+
17%
Rotor Volgograd wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 1+ goals
72%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz 2+ goals
36%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz 3+ goals
13%
Rotor Volgograd 1+ goals
68%
Rotor Volgograd 2+ goals
32%
Rotor Volgograd 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Alaniya Vladikavkaz (draw refunded)
54%
Rotor Volgograd (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alaniya Vladikavkaz at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.24 · 70 matches

Rotor Volgograd away — creates 1.06, concedes 0.95 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz attack 1.57 + Rotor Volgograd defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.26

Rotor Volgograd attack 1.06 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Alaniya Vladikavkaz scores more
39%
level
28%
Rotor Volgograd scores more
34%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Alaniya Vladikavkaz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
Allon Butaev
11'
T. Kasimov
17'
D. Lavrishchev
34'
M. Maltsev
46'
B. Gurtsiev← A. Khugaev
46'
E. Gubiev← I. Moskalenchik
46'
S. Makarov← I. Tsallagov
57'
W. Chimezie← T. Gagloev
60'
V. Morozov← D. Lavrishchev
60'
D. Talikin← Y. Zavezen
71'
M. Ageev← V. Morozov
73'
T. Toboev← N. Abdokov
78'
I. Sokolov← T. Kasimov
78'
N. Plotnikov← M. Maltsev
89'
Aleksey Tataev
90+2'
A. Bagaev

Statistics

AlaniyaRotor
Discipline
1Yellow Cards0
1Red Cards0

First League: Alaniya Vladikavkaz 1–3 Rotor Volgograd

Rotor Volgograd beat Alaniya Vladikavkaz 3-1 in First League on November 16, 2024.

Goals: T. Kasimov (11'), D. Lavrishchev (17'), M. Maltsev (34'), A. Bagaev (90+2').

The match was played at Stadion im. Sultana Bilimkhanova in Groznyi.