Alaniya Vladikavkaz 5–2 Leningradets

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

FT

5 – 2

HT: 3 – 1

Leningradets

11/16/2025

Second League A - Fall Season Gold · Fall Season Gold - 18Respublikanskij Stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz34%

×Draw26%

Leningradets40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alaniya VladikavkazExpected goals in this matchLeningradets

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.43

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

1.29

Leningradets

1.43

Leningradets creates 11% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 27 away

1.33

creates per match

1.07

1.78

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

1.33

Leningradets

1.07

allows per match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

1.78

Leningradets

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alaniya Vladikavkaz+0.00on par

Leningradets+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alaniya Vladikavkaz ↓

Leningradets →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Alaniya Vladikavkaz or draw

60%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz or Leningradets

74%

Draw or Leningradets

66%

Winning margin

Alaniya Vladikavkaz wins by 2+

15%

Leningradets wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 1+ goals

72%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 2+ goals

37%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 3+ goals

14%

Leningradets 1+ goals

76%

Leningradets 2+ goals

42%

Leningradets 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Alaniya Vladikavkaz (draw refunded)

46%

Leningradets (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alaniya Vladikavkaz at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

Leningradets away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.26 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz attack 1.33 + Leningradets defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.29

Leningradets attack 1.07 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Alaniya Vladikavkaz scores more

34%

level

26%

Leningradets scores more

40%

Leningradets at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Leningradets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League A - Fall Season Gold: Alaniya Vladikavkaz 5–2 Leningradets

Alaniya Vladikavkaz beat Leningradets 5-2 in Second League A - Fall Season Gold on November 16, 2025.

The match was played at Respublikanskij Stadion Spartak in Vladikavkaz.

Alaniya Vladikavkaz vs Leningradets — Second League A - Fall Season Gold 2023

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Second League A - Fall Season Gold: Alaniya Vladikavkaz 5–2 Leningradets