Alaniya Vladikavkaz 1–2 FK Neftekhimik

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

FK Neftekhimik

T. Bulatsev 50'

K. Shiltsov 63'

S. Aliev 12'

5/24/2025

First League · Round 34Stadion im. Sultana Bilimkhanova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz41%

×Draw26%

FK Neftekhimik32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alaniya VladikavkazExpected goals in this matchFK Neftekhimik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.18

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

1.38

FK Neftekhimik

1.18

Alaniya Vladikavkaz creates 17% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 123 away

1.57

creates per match

1.12

1.24

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

1.57

FK Neftekhimik

1.12

allows per match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

1.24

FK Neftekhimik

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alaniya Vladikavkaz+0.00on par

FK Neftekhimik+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alaniya Vladikavkaz ↓

FK Neftekhimik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Alaniya Vladikavkaz or draw

68%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz or FK Neftekhimik

74%

Draw or FK Neftekhimik

59%

Winning margin

Alaniya Vladikavkaz wins by 2+

19%

FK Neftekhimik wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 1+ goals

75%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 2+ goals

40%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 3+ goals

16%

FK Neftekhimik 1+ goals

69%

FK Neftekhimik 2+ goals

33%

FK Neftekhimik 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Alaniya Vladikavkaz (draw refunded)

56%

FK Neftekhimik (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alaniya Vladikavkaz at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.24 · 70 matches

FK Neftekhimik away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.19 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz attack 1.57 + FK Neftekhimik defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.38

FK Neftekhimik attack 1.12 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Alaniya Vladikavkaz scores more

41%

level

26%

FK Neftekhimik scores more

32%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Alaniya Vladikavkaz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

S. Aliev

46'

I. Dudaev← D. Kazantsev

46'

R. Daurov← A. Zakirov

46'

S. Ogoev← V. Nafikov

50'

T. Bulatsev

63'

K. Shiltsov

65'

K. Morozov← K. Shiltsov

65'

R. Magomedov← A. Nikitin

75'

Aleksandr Kakhidze

75'

D. Chertkoev← M. Chirkov

79'

E. Valiakhmetov← D. Rodin

84'

David Kokoev II← T. Bulatsev

89'

Maksim Shiryaev

90+4'

Alan Bagaev

90+1'

A. Budylin← S. Aliev

Statistics

AlaniyaFK

Discipline

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0