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Alaniya Vladikavkaz vs Dolgoprudny — First League 2018

Alaniya Vladikavkaz
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Dolgoprudny
Dolgoprudny
3/12/2022First LeagueFirst League · Round 27Stadion im. Sultana Bilimkhanova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz45%
×Draw27%
Dolgoprudny28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.39
Dolgoprudny
1.04

Alaniya Vladikavkaz creates 34% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 19 away

creates per match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.57
Dolgoprudny
0.84

allows per match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.24
Dolgoprudny
1.21

finishing

Alaniya Vladikavkaz+0.00on par
Dolgoprudny+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alaniya Vladikavkaz ↓

Dolgoprudny →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Alaniya Vladikavkaz or draw
72%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz or Dolgoprudny
73%
Draw or Dolgoprudny
55%

Winning margin

Alaniya Vladikavkaz wins by 2+
21%
Dolgoprudny wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 1+ goals
75%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz 2+ goals
40%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz 3+ goals
16%
Dolgoprudny 1+ goals
65%
Dolgoprudny 2+ goals
28%
Dolgoprudny 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Alaniya Vladikavkaz (draw refunded)
61%
Dolgoprudny (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alaniya Vladikavkaz at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.24 · 70 matches

Dolgoprudny away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz attack 1.57 + Dolgoprudny defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.39

Dolgoprudny attack 0.84 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Alaniya Vladikavkaz scores more
45%
level
27%
Dolgoprudny scores more
28%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Alaniya Vladikavkaz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alaniya Vladikavkaz vs Dolgoprudny

Alaniya Vladikavkaz beat Dolgoprudny 2-0 in First League on March 12, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion im. Sultana Bilimkhanova in Groznyi.