Alaniya Vladikavkaz 3–1 Dinamo Stavropol

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Dinamo Stavropol

4/1/2026

Second League A - Fall Season Silver · Spring Season Silver - 6Respublikanskij Stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz48%

×Draw26%

Dinamo Stavropol27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alaniya VladikavkazExpected goals in this matchDinamo Stavropol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.05

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

1.50

Dinamo Stavropol

1.05

Alaniya Vladikavkaz creates 43% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

1.22

creates per match

1.22

0.89

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

1.22

Dinamo Stavropol

1.22

allows per match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

0.89

Dinamo Stavropol

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alaniya Vladikavkaz+0.00on par

Dinamo Stavropol+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alaniya Vladikavkaz ↓

Dinamo Stavropol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Alaniya Vladikavkaz or draw

73%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz or Dinamo Stavropol

74%

Draw or Dinamo Stavropol

52%

Winning margin

Alaniya Vladikavkaz wins by 2+

24%

Dinamo Stavropol wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 1+ goals

78%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 2+ goals

44%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 3+ goals

19%

Dinamo Stavropol 1+ goals

65%

Dinamo Stavropol 2+ goals

28%

Dinamo Stavropol 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Alaniya Vladikavkaz (draw refunded)

64%

Dinamo Stavropol (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alaniya Vladikavkaz at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

Dinamo Stavropol away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz attack 1.22 + Dinamo Stavropol defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.50

Dinamo Stavropol attack 1.22 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Alaniya Vladikavkaz scores more

48%

level

26%

Dinamo Stavropol scores more

27%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Alaniya Vladikavkaz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff